Category Archives: Poll Analysis

General Election 2017, Poll Analysis, United Kingdom

ANALYSIS OF POLLS ENDING APRIL 22ND TO 27TH IN THE UK GENERAL ELECTION

Leave a comment

The overall average (and seat totals) for the parties in the polls ending between April 22nd and 27th in the UK General Election were as follows :

CONSERVATIVES 45% 402 seats
LABOUR 29% 162 seats
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 10% 12 seats
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY 8%
SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY 4% 54 seats
PLAID CYMRU 1% 1 seat
GREENS 3% 1 seat

test
The Conservatives are up 7 points since 2015 (but down 3% since the first poll analysis), and would gain 84 seats. They would gains particularly amongst older voters, working-class voters and those voters in Wales. By contrast, the vote amongst younger voters has remained static.

Labour have held onto their younger vote – in fact they increase it, but lose amongst older voters. The Tories are ahead of them in every region bar the North.

The Liberal Democrats fare better amongst middle-class voters, and see a sizeable increase in London – but less elsewhere. 5 out of every 6 Liberal Democrats are Remain voters.

As many 2015 UKIP voters now say they are going to vote Conservative as say the will remain with UKIP. They do best amongst working-class voters. 5 out of every 6 UKIPers are Leave voters.

The SNP hold fairly firm – they lose 1 seat in Glasgow to the Liberal Democrats, and 2 in Southern Scotland to the Tories. They however gain 1 from Labour.

You can read the report here : UK Apr 22 to Apr 27

General Election 2017, Poll Analysis, United Kingdom

Analysis of the Polls Ending 18th-21st April in the UK Election

Leave a comment

The overall average (and seat totals) for the parties in the first five polls conducted in the UK General Election were as follows :

CONSERVATIVES 48% 455 seats
LABOUR 25% 115 seats
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 11% 11 seats
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY 7%
SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY 4% 51 seats
PLAID CYMRU 1%

The Conservatives are up 10 points since 2015, and would gain 125 seats. They would gains particularly amongst older voters, working-class voters and those voters in Wales. By contrast, the vote amongst younger voters has remained static.

Labour have held onto their younger vote, but lose amongst middle-aged and particularly older voters. Their vote has fallen badly in Wales, and has fallen further in Scotland. The Tories are ahead of them in every region – only in London and the North do they come close.

The Liberal Democrats fare better amongst middle-class voters, and see a sizeable increase in London – but less elsewhere.

As many 2015 UKIP voters now say they are going to vote Conservative as say the will remain with UKIP. They do best amongst working-class voters.

You can read the report here : UK Apr 18 to Apr 21 NEW

Poll Analysis

Analysis of the Millward Brown February 2017 Poll

Leave a comment

The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the Millward Brown poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :

OTHERS16%11

PARTY VOTE SEATS
FIANNA FAIL 33% 60
FINE GAEL 25% 47
SINN FEIN 20% 35
LABOUR 6% 4
Others 16% 11

It might seem odd that Labour only win 3 seats off 6%, but this result is explained by the fact that of the 7 seats Labour won in February 2016, 5 were won on the last count. Of these 5, 4 were won by a victory margin of less than 2000 votes and 3 with a margin of less than 1000 votes.

MBfeb19th2017

As can be seen, Fine Gael gain 4 seats but lose 6 – 4 of those projected losses being in Leinster.

Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country – although their improvement is somewhat more muted in Leinster. Fine Gael show the largest drop in Leinster – where they are (on these figures) at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare North, Louth, Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote remains virtually static in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a very strong performance in Leinster.

Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this :

OTHERS16%10

PARTY VOTE SEATS
FIANNA FAIL 33% 59
FINE GAEL 25% 47
SINN FEIN 20% 36
LABOUR 6% 5
Others 16% 10

You can read the entire report here .Millward Brown February 2017 Poll

Poll Analysis

Analysis of RED C’s January 2017 poll

Leave a comment

The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the RED C poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :

PARTY VOTE SEATS
FIANNA FAIL 27% 54
FINE GAEL 24% 40
LABOUR 5% 3
SINN FEIN 14% 23
OTHERS 30% 37

As can be seen, Fianna Fáil are only 3% ahead of Fine Gael, yet win 14 more seats. This is due to the fact that Fianna Fáil were “luckier” on the last count – they took 11 of the final seats, but only 6 of the runner-up slots. By contrast, Fine Gael took 15 of the final seats, but 20 runner-up slots. Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this.

PARTY VOTE SEATS
FIANNA FAIL 27% 51
FINE GAEL 24% 42
LABOUR 5% 2
SINN FEIN 14% 25
OTHERS 30% 37

Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country, while Fine Gael show a poor performance in Leinster – where they are at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Meath East, Louth, Longford-Westmeath, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote improves slightly in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a strong performance in Leinster offset by a poor performance in Connaught-Ulster.

You can read the entire report here :

RED C January 2017